No individual is considered more of an NFL draft expert than ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr., who makes a living evaluating collegiate football talent in advance of draft day. In the months leading up to each draft, Kiper, like hundreds of his professional peers, releases a “mock draft”, his prediction regarding the exact order in which players will be drafted. In 2014, of the 32 players selected in round one, Kiper correctly predicted the selection of only 4 players (an accuracy rate of 12.5%). Similarly, Jay Mohr of the Jay Mohr Sports radio show on FOX sports radio, who is a season ticket holder for the Los Angeles Kings hockey team, predicted that the New York Rangers would beat the Kings in 6 games for the 2014 Stanley Cup (the series is currently 2-0 in the Kings’ favor). These examples support Daniel Kahneman’s comment in Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011) that, “people who spend their time, and earn their living, studying a particular topic produce poorer predictions than dart-throwing monkeys…” Reasons for the often wide discrepancy between expert predictions and actual results can be broken into two types: intentional and unintentional. This paper will examine these two types of reasons to explain the fallibility of expert predictions. Continue reading